Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 28.865556 31.815857 35.080011 38.986500 43.571057 48.826746 5.537519e+01
2025-07-27 24.515464 28.463130 33.193668 39.387574 47.452777 57.854700 7.274381e+01
2025-08-03 21.367524 25.739043 31.289861 39.073334 50.094467 65.826890 9.146521e+01
2025-08-10 19.130232 23.699389 29.767698 38.759785 52.424662 73.779778 1.132135e+02
2025-08-17 17.564341 22.270512 28.761226 38.850887 55.192833 83.024866 1.414314e+02
2025-08-24 16.194743 20.914781 27.624621 38.474131 57.027291 91.147102 1.721172e+02
2025-08-31 15.084820 19.789214 26.653600 38.145421 58.790639 99.626172 2.094813e+02
2025-09-07 14.141270 18.803105 25.761119 37.773297 60.343035 108.172042 2.543839e+02
2025-09-14 13.377516 18.008847 25.067595 37.611573 62.223696 118.122607 3.144394e+02
2025-09-21 12.645337 17.198639 24.260948 37.123495 63.328505 126.684326 3.814938e+02
2025-09-28 12.406601 17.123054 24.625204 38.790504 69.334054 150.835319 5.668189e+02
2025-10-05 11.857070 16.513989 24.039098 38.577373 71.108717 163.982982 7.340752e+02
2025-10-12 11.379584 16.000295 23.591768 38.621698 73.641179 181.603385 1.021434e+03
2025-10-19 11.021946 15.657396 23.411761 39.185004 77.658265 207.600548 1.614958e+03
2025-10-26 10.575390 15.138031 22.874225 38.936310 79.530420 227.194399 2.439549e+03
2025-11-02 10.162304 14.648551 22.350126 38.648096 81.249921 248.021795 3.949586e+03
2025-11-09 9.835171 14.283735 22.023662 38.747844 84.138937 277.734736 8.137433e+03
2025-11-16 9.473982 13.839647 21.515290 38.375937 85.544324 301.785583 1.850332e+04
2025-11-23 9.145749 13.434574 21.051011 38.049728 87.039963 328.870234 7.054777e+04
2025-11-30 8.836038 13.045707 20.590606 37.679451 88.328008 357.167795 3.307080e+06
2025-12-07 8.571389 12.722560 20.234972 37.518498 90.317038 394.498391 NaN
2025-12-14 8.288579 12.353868 19.766656 37.032262 91.066810 424.396890 NaN
2025-12-21 8.247669 12.413159 20.145424 38.693190 100.280028 554.932204 NaN